经济类文章精选：OPTIONS AHOY
15 OPTIONS AHOY
Why investors like Korean blue chips
DESPITE the world economic downturn, South Korea's stockmarket has this year outperformed those of all other countries bar Russia. Its composite stock price index (Kospi) has risen by more than 25% since January 1st. The rally, which has been driven by foreign buying, is expected to continue next year, for two reasons: encouraging economic fundamentals, and the introduction of derivatives so beloved of the world's hedge funds.
On January 28th next year the Korea Stock Exchange is due to introduce option contracts on the shares of seven listed companies: SK Telecom, Korea Electric Power, Korea Telecom, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor, Pohang Iron & Steel and Kookmin Bank. And as early as July, the Financial Supervisory Commission is expected to allow investment banks to sell over-the-counter derivatives, such as equity or interest-rate swaps. Trading volume on the exchange will increase accordingly, says Lee Wonki at Merrill Lynch. Foreigners hold nearly 90 trillion won ($70 billion) of Korean shares, 37% of the market. Their slice of the trading of Kospi 200 index futures and options rose to 10% this year, from about 5% a year ago. But the Kospi index, covering 200 companies, is not the best way to hedge foreign portfolios, which are invested mainly in the seven blue-chip shares. Yet derivatives alone will not sustain Korean equities unless the economy turns around. There are signs that it has reached bottom, with real GDP estimated to have grown by at least 2.8% this year (slower than last year but higher than earlier forecasts of 2% or less). Jin Nyum, the finance minister, predicts that, although exports may suffer next year if the Japanese yen continues to fall, domestic demand and public spending will help real GDP to grow near to the country's full potential of 5%.
Some analysts argue that the recent market rise has been caused by investors'