Energy production and consumption prediction and their response to environment based on coupling model in China

历史军事论文 时间:2012-07-14 我要投稿
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Abstract:The paper presents the prediction of total energy production and consumption in all provinces and autonomous regions as well as determination of the variation of gravity center of the energy production,consumption and total discharge of industrial waste water,gas and residue of China via the energy and environmental quality data from 1978 to 2009 in China by use of GM(1,1) model and gravity center model,based on which the paper also analyzes the dynamic variation in regional difference in energy production,consumption and environmental quality and their relationship.The results are shown as follows.1) The gravity center of energy production is gradually moving southwestward and the entire movement track approximates to linear variation,indicating that the difference of energy production between the east and west,south and north is narrowing to a certain extent,with the difference between the east and the west narrowing faster than that between the south and the north.2) The gravity center of energy consumption is moving southwestward with perceptible fluctuation,of which the gravity center position from 2000 to 2005 was relatively stable,with slight annual position variation,indicating that the growth rates of all provinces and autonomous regions are basically the same.3) The gravity center of the total discharge of industrial waste water,gas and residue is characterized by fluctuation in longitude and latitude to a certain degree.But,it shows a southwestward trend on the whole.4) There are common ground and discrepancy in the variation track of the gravity center of the energy production & consumption of China,and the comparative analysis of the gravity center of them and that of total discharge of industrial waste water,gas and residue shows that the environmental quality level is closely associated with the energy production and consumption (especially the energy consumption),indicating that the environment cost in economy of energy is higher in China. 作者: Author: LI Qiang[1]  REN Zhiyuan[2] 作者单位: College of Tourism and Environment Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xian 710062, China;Shaanxi Institute of Education, Xian 710061, China;Northwest Land and Resources Research Center, Shaanxi Normal University, Xian 710062, ChinaCollege of Tourism and Environment Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xian 710062, China;Northwest Land and Resources Research Center, Shaanxi Normal University, Xian 710062, China 期 刊: 地理学报(英文版)   ISTICSCI Journal: Journal of Geographical Sciences 年,卷(期): 2012, 22(1) 分类号: K90 Keywords: energy production    energy consumption    industrial waste water,gas and residue    prediction and analysis    space response    China    机标分类号: P5 TG3 机标关键词: China    coupling model    based    energy production    environmental quality    center    energy consumption    waste water    regional difference    total    comparative analysis    autonomous    dynamic variation    determination of    quality data    growth rates    paper    especially    gas    presents 基金项目: National Natural Science Foundation of China,Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences under the Ministry of Education,National Natural Science Foundation of China Energy production and consumption prediction and their response to environment based on coupling model in China[期刊论文]  地理学报(英文版) --2012, 22(1)The paper presents the prediction of total energy production and consumption in all provinces and autonomous regions as well as determination of the variation of gravity center of the energy production...