Dynamic Behavior and Unstable State Evolution of Ocean-Atmosphere Oscillator
It is mathematically and thoroughly proved in this paper that the nonlinear stochastic ocean-atmosphere oscillator model possesses a stable limit cycle; then the model equations are transformed into the FokkerPlanck equation (FPE), and the evolution of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from unstable state to stable state is studied from the point of view of nonequilibrium system dynamics. The study results reveal that although the complex nonlinear ocean-atmosphere oscillator model possesses multiequilibrium states,the real climatic system possesses only a quasi-normal state and a strong ENSO cycle stable state. The first passage time between states is also given in this paper, and the theoretical computational results agree with observational data.
作 者: DONG Wenjie FENG Guolin 作者单位: DONG Wenjie(Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing 100081)FENG Guolin(Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing 100081;Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029)
刊 名: 气象学报(英文版) SCI 英文刊名: ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICA 年,卷(期): 2005 19(4) 分类号: P4 关键词: ENSO Fokker-Planck equation limit cycle ocean-atmosphere oscillator probability density