The Change of North China Climate in Transient Simulations Using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios with a Coupled Atmosp
This paper applies the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, namely IPCCSRES A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigate the change of the North China climate with an atmosphere-oceancoupled general circulation nodel. In the last three decades of the 21st century, the global warming enlargesthe land-sea thermal contrast, and hence, causes the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation tobe strengthened (weakened). The rainfall seasonality strengthens and the summer precipitation increasessignificantly in North China. It is suggested that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward toNorth China in the last three decades of the 21st century. In addition, the North China precipitationwould increase significantly in September. In July, August, and September, the interannual variability ofthe precipitation enlarges evidently over North China, implying a risk of flooding in the future.
作 者： 布和朝鲁 Ulrich CUBASCH 林永辉 纪立人 作者单位： 布和朝鲁,纪立人(LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029)Ulrich CUBASCH(Meteorologisches Institut der Freien Universitaet Berlin, Care-Heinrich-Becker Weg 6-10, 12165)
林永辉(Institute of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081)
刊 名： 大气科学进展(英文版) ISTIC SCI 英文刊名： ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 年，卷(期)： 2003 20(5) 分类号： P4 关键词： North China Climate change Seasonality IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios