Natural interdecadal weak-ening of East Asian summer monsoon in the late 20th century
Based on the reanalysis data throughout 1948―2002 as derived from the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research, it is revealed that East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity weakens on an interdecadal timescale since the mid-1960s, and twice interdecadal jumps are recorded in the EASM intensity index series in the late 20th century, respectively occurring in the mid-1960s and mid- to late 1970s. Six globally coupled atmosphere-ocean models' outputs under the SRES A2 greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenario, provided by the IPCC Data Distribution Center and the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, are then systematically examined. It follows that the above EASM weakening is not closely related to synchronizing anthropogenic global warming, and, therefore, it should be qualitatively natural change process. Over the 21st century, the EASM intensity is likely increased slightly by continually intensified greenhouse effect relative to the late 20th century.
作 者： JIANG Dabang WANG Huijun 作者单位： JIANG Dabang(Nansen-Zhu International Research Center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China)WANG Huijun(Nansen-Zhu International Research Center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China)
刊 名： 科学通报（英文版） SCI 英文刊名： CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN 年，卷(期)： 2005 50(17) 分类号： P4 关键词： East Asian summer monsoon interdecadal weakening global warming natural change