GHG emission reductions and costs to achieve Kyoto target
Emission projection and marginal abatement cost curves (MACs) are the central components of any assessment of future carbonmarket, such as CDM (clean development mechanism) potentials, carbon quota price etc. However, they are products of very complex,dynamic systems driven by forces like population growth, economic development, resource endowments, technology progress and so on. Themodeling approaches for emission projection and MACs evaluation were summarized, and some major models and their results were compared.Accordingly, reduction and cost requirements to achieve the Kyoto target were estimated. It is concluded that Annex I Parties' total reductionrequirements range from 503-1304 MtC with USA participation and decrease significantly to 140-612 MtC after USA' s withdrawal. Totalcosts vary from 21-77 BUSD with USA and from 5-36 BUSD without USA if only domestic reduction actions are taken. The costs wouldsharply reduce while considering the three flexible mechanisms defined in the Kyoto Protocol with domestic actions' share in the all mitigationstrategies drops to only 0-16%.
作 者： CHEN Wen-ying 作者单位： Energy, Environment and Economy Research Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China 刊 名： 环境科学学报(英文版) ISTIC SCI 英文刊名： JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 年，卷(期)： 2003 15(4) 分类号： X82 X11 关键词： Kyoto Protocol emission reduction abatement cost flexible mechanisms