Prediction Model Based on the Grey T

Prediction Model Based on the Grey Theory for Tackling Wax Deposition in Oil Pipelines

Problems involving wax deposition threaten seriously crude pipelines both economically and operationally. Wax deposition in oil pipelines is a complicated problem having a number of uncertainties and indeterminations. The Grey System Theory is a suitable theory for coping with systems in which some information is clear and some is not, so it is an adequate model for studying the process of wax deposition.In order to predict accurately wax deposition along a pipeline, the Grey Model was applied to fit the data of wax deposition rate and the thickness of the deposited wax layer on the pipe-wall, and to give accurate forecast on wax deposition in oil pipelines. The results showed that the average residential error of the Grey Prediction Model is smaller than 2%. They further showed that this model exhibited high prediction accuracy. Our investigation proved that the Grey Model is a viable means for forecasting wax deposition.These findings offer valuable references for the oil industry and for firms dealing with wax cleaning in oil pipelines.

作 者： Ming Wu Shujuan Qiu Jianfeng Liu Ling Zhao   作者单位： Ming Wu,Shujuan Qiu,Jianfeng Liu(Department of Mechanical Engineering, Liaoning University of Petroleum and Chemical Technology, Liaoning 113001, China)

Ling Zhao(Vocational and Technical College, Liaoning University of Petroleum and Chemical Technology, Liaoning 113001, China) 

刊 名： 天然气化学（英文版）  ISTIC SCI 英文刊名： JOURNAL OF NATURAL GAS CHEMISTRY  年，卷(期)： 2005 14(4)  分类号： O6  关键词： oil pipeline   wax deposition   grey system   model   forecasting