前长江流域极端降水预估

2050年前长江流域极端降水预估

Daily maximum rainfall(R1D)was higher in the Jialing River basin,the Taihu Lake area and the mid-lower main stream section of the Yangtze River basin in the 1990s,and there was a good relationship between ECHAM5/MPI-OM model simulation and the observed data about extreme precipitation(R1D).Under the IPCC SRES A2,A1B,and B1 scenarios,R1Ds are all projected to be in increasing trends in the upper Yangtze River basin during 2001-2050,and R1D shows a more significant increasing tendency under the A2 scenario when compared with the A1B scenario before 2020.With respect to the middle and lower Yangtze River basin,an increasing tendency is projected before 2025,and since then the increasing tendency will become insignificant.There might be more floods to the south of the Yangtze River and more droughts to the north in the next decades.

作 者： 张增信 张强 张金池 Jiang Tong Klaus Fraedrich Zhang Zengxin Zhang Qiang Zhang Jinchi Jiang Tong Klaus Fraedrich   作者单位： 张增信,Zhang Zengxin(Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Forestry Ecological Engineering,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China;Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China)

张强,Zhang Qiang(Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China)

张金池,Zhang Jinchi(Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Forestry Ecological Engineering,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)

Jiang Tong,Jiang Tong(Laboratory for Climate Studies,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

Klaus Fraedrich,Klaus Fraedrich(Meteorological Institute,Hamburg University,Hamburg D-20146,Germany) 

刊 名： 气候变化研究进展  ISTIC 英文刊名： ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH  年，卷(期)： 2008 4(z1)  分类号： P4  关键词： Yangtze River basin   extreme precipitation   daily maximum rainfall   the year 2050   projection  

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