城市生态需水量变化的驱动机制研究-以深圳市宝安区为例
摘要： 人类活动的强烈干预使城市生态系统结构发生急剧变化,导致土地利用方式改变,城市生态需水量也随之显著改变.以深圳市宝安区为例,定量分析城市生态需水量与土地利用结构的相互作用关系,并利用偏最小二乘回归法对土地利用和城市生态需水量的变化进行了人文驱动机制分析.结果表明,城市生态需水量与土地利用结构特征指标SI具有显著负相关关系.所选驱动因素总体对于土地利用变化的解释率为50%～90%,特别是对城镇建设用地和SI指标的.解释率高达90%以上;对各类生态需水量变化的解释率为60%～80%.各驱动因子对土地利用和生态需水量变化的影响程度有所不同,其中总人口的影响最大.由于城市生态需水量与土地利用变化具有类似的人文驱动机制,利用简化的SI指标可以方便地解释和预测城市生态需水量的变化. Abstract： The interruption of human with the urban ecosystems will change the land use structure dramatically and result in deterioration of environmental quality as well as the remarkable change of ecological water requirements. Based on the case study of Bao'an, Shenzhen, this paper presents the quantitative relationship between urban ecological water requirements (UEWR) and the characteristic index for land use structure (SI). The driving mechanism of human activities to the land use change and UEWR is studied by Partial Least Squares Regression model. The estimation results indicate the significant negative correlation between UEWR and SI. The human driving forces can explain 50%～90% of the deviation of the land use, especially more than 90% of the urban construction area and SI. The explanation ability of the same driving forces to the ecological water requirements are 60%～80%. The coefficients of the regression model represent the weight of the driving forces, among which the population is of the most important contribution. Through the same human driving mechanism, the UEWR can be explained and predicted by the simple index of SI. 作 者： 毛小苓 田坤 李静萍 李天宏 刘永伟 MAO Xiaoling TIAN Kun LI Jingping LI Tianhong LIU Yongwei 作者单位： 毛小苓,田坤,李天宏,刘永伟,MAO Xiaoling,TIAN Kun,LI Tianhong,LIU Yongwei(北京大学环境工程系,水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京,100871)李静萍,LI Jingping(中国人民大学统计学院,北京,100872)
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